While it may be hard to feel relief for something you knew nothing about, those over at NASA who did know are probably all wiping their brows, saying “phew!” and confidently booking vacations for 25 years from now.
Passing within 9 million miles of Earth last Wednesday, researchers have been tracking the asteroid since its discovery in 2004. At times, scientists were saying that there was a 2.7 percent chance that it could hit the Earth, but now they’re saying not to sweat it at all.
The asteroid’s name is Apophis—named both for a Stargate SG-1 character, and for an evil Egyptian god who embodied darkness and chaos. The name confirms that astronomers watch exactly what you’d guess they’d watch, and that this asteroid is a pretty menacing visitor.
At 1,050 feet across—or 3.5 fbfs (football fields, for any non-astrotypes, or actual astrotypes out there)—Apophis has the striking power of 850 tons of TNT. This is a lot—more than 4 times the energy released when the Indonesian volcano Krakatoa erupted in 1883.
Scientists had the asteroid projected to most likely hit in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of North America, potentially causing a 30-meter high tsunami to hit Southern California. While that may sound better than a mass extinction, the best news is hearing that we don’t even have to worry about that.
Culprit orbit (via NASA)
“The impact odds as they stand now are less than one in a million,” said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Lab, “which makes us comfortable saying we can effectively rule out an Earth impact in 2036.” Which is the most comforting thing I’ve heard in a long time.
In fact, 2036 isn’t even the closest that Apophis will come to the Earth.
Seven years prior, on April 13, 2029, the asteroid will pass 19,400 miles above the Earth’s surface. Coming so close to the Earth will disrupt Apophis’s rotation and its course, causing it to cross the path of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun--but harmlessly (for Earth, anyway)! The change in Apophis’s rotation could cause it to change shape or break apart. Scientists are excited to see just what happens.
Never one to allow us to let our guards down, Yeomans hyped another asteroid—this one just 40 meters across, or roughly .5 fbfs—that is set to pass even closer on February 15 of this year.
“[M]uch sooner, a closer approach by a lesser-known asteroid is going to occur in the middle of next month when a 40-meter-sized asteroid, 2012 DA14, flies safely past Earth's surface at about 17,200 miles," said Yeomans, making it sound really far away, even though that’s only like taking a round trip from New York to Sri Lanka. Sure, that’s far. But not, like, unimaginably so.
Anyway, he said not to worry. Sweet dreams.
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